Strategy Deepdive

GenConfluence — The Balancer

Our balanced strategy, pairing the Nasdaq-100 with gold.

GenConfluence is our balanced strategy. It trades QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, and GLD, a gold ETF. All results on this page are from a backtest.

Strategy descriptions refer to our published backtested and live results; they are not a promise of future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Performance metrics

Cumulative returns

625.6%

What does this mean? (Cumulative returns)

The total percentage gain from the starting investment over the entire period. Shows the overall growth of the strategy.

CAGR

28.8%

What does this mean? (CAGR)

Compound Annual Growth Rate: the annualized rate of return over the period, accounting for compounding. It represents the average yearly growth rate needed to reach the final value from the initial investment.

Average win

1.00%

What does this mean? (Average win)

The average percentage gain on winning trades. Higher values indicate stronger profitable trades.

Average loss

-0.63%

What does this mean? (Average loss)

The average percentage loss on losing trades. Smaller absolute values indicate smaller losses per losing trade.

Max drawdown

13.8%

SPY 33.1% · QQQ 34.8%

What does this mean? (Max drawdown)

The largest peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value during the period. Future drawdowns may be larger.

Annual std. deviation

13.6%

SPY 15.6% · QQQ 19.6%

What does this mean? (Annual std. deviation)

Measures the volatility of the strategy's returns. Higher values indicate more variable returns and higher risk.

Sharpe ratio

1.35

SPY 0.76 · QQQ 0.79

What does this mean? (Sharpe ratio)

Measures risk-adjusted returns by comparing excess returns to volatility. Higher values (typically above 1.0) indicate more return per unit of risk taken.

Sortino ratio

1.63

SPY 0.78 · QQQ 0.86

What does this mean? (Sortino ratio)

Similar to the Sharpe ratio but only considers downside volatility, focusing on the risk of negative returns.

Treynor ratio

0.60

SPY 0.12 · QQQ 0.13

What does this mean? (Treynor ratio)

Measures excess returns per unit of systematic (market) risk. Higher values indicate better risk-adjusted performance relative to market movements.

Information ratio

0.39

SPY — · QQQ 0.48

SPY is the benchmark for this ratio, so it has none of its own.

What does this mean? (Information ratio)

Measures how consistently returns exceed a benchmark, relative to the tracking error.

Returns from

Jan 1, 2019

Returns to

Oct 31, 2026

All GenConfluence results, from January 2019 through October 31, 2026, are from a backtest. Backtested results are hypothetical, have inherent limitations, and may not reflect actual trading outcomes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

GenConfluence vs. S&P 500 / Nasdaq‑100

Summary

Jan 1, 2019 to Oct 31, 2026

Metric SPY* QQQ* GenConfluence
CAGR16.7%21.7%28.8%
Total returns235%365.3%625.6%
Value of $10K$33,501$46,526$72,564

*SPY is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which tracks the S&P 500 index. QQQ is the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index.

Growth of $10,000

SPY QQQ GenConfluence
$10K$30K$100K20192020202120222023202420252026$72.6KGenConfluence$46.5KQQQ$33.5KSPY
Year end SPY QQQ GenConfluence
2019 $13,095 $13,914 $11,934
2020 $15,410 $20,542 $20,121
2021 $19,914 $26,329 $26,240
2022 $16,300 $17,728 $28,321
2023 $20,501 $27,309 $36,436
2024 $25,633 $34,518 $46,594
2025 $30,244 $41,624 $67,961
2026 YTD (till 10/31) $33,501 $46,526 $72,564

Annual returns vs. benchmarks (SPY & QQQ)

SPY QQQ GenConfluence
-50%0%50%100%19%201969%202030%20218%202229%202328%202446%20257%2026 YTD
Year SPY QQQ GenConfluence
2019 30.95% 39.14% 19.34%
2020 17.68% 47.64% 68.60%
2021 29.23% 28.17% 30.42%
2022 -18.15% -32.67% 7.93%
2023 25.77% 54.04% 28.65%
2024 25.03% 26.40% 27.88%
2025 17.99% 20.59% 45.86%
2026 YTD (till 10/31) 10.77% 11.78% 6.77%

2026 is year to date, through October 31, 2026. All results are from a backtest. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Rolling performance heatmaps

GenConfluence, SPY and QQQ, and GenConfluence relative to each benchmark.

GenConfluence - 1-Month rolling returns

How to read these tables: Each cell is the return over the month ending that month, in percent. The comparison tables (GenConfluence vs. a benchmark) show the difference in percentage points: a positive number means GenConfluence did better; a negative number means the benchmark did better.

GenConfluence (%)
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
20195.01.01.12.91.31.11.82.6-2.61.11.61.1
20203.0-0.516.311.92.45.26.09.5-0.11.0-0.91.0
2021-3.30.51.86.43.85.50.24.9-2.75.13.41.9
2022-3.66.85.2-1.12.9-5.91.7-2.9-3.12.14.81.8
20236.1-3.47.22.85.84.03.91.6-3.3-2.52.02.0
20242.81.21.71.65.15.30.8-0.52.70.12.02.4
20252.7-3.61.39.80.65.92.53.25.85.51.63.6
2026-0.97.0-7.511.74.8-2.9-3.52.0-0.1-2.6
SPY (%)
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
20197.64.21.63.9-4.95.42.6-2.71.42.93.32.6
20202.0-9.4-10.911.83.70.56.38.1-4.7-1.711.22.7
2021-0.52.74.06.30.02.12.53.1-3.65.61.12.8
2022-7.1-0.95.0-10.10.8-7.98.2-3.3-8.47.11.6-2.8
20234.7-0.71.93.01.04.64.2-1.3-4.8-2.79.34.9
20243.23.13.6-2.52.44.4-0.44.01.71.53.9-2.0
20252.8-3.3-4.7-0.26.34.63.11.63.12.40.50.8
20260.7-0.9-7.612.56.3-1.80.13.7-0.4-1.1
QQQ (%)
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
20198.34.73.66.2-7.35.73.7-3.20.05.24.03.6
20204.8-7.4-6.313.86.44.27.411.8-5.5-2.410.84.8
20210.5-0.10.28.1-1.86.32.74.3-5.47.43.50.3
2022-12.0-1.76.2-14.5-1.3-7.911.0-4.5-9.43.4-0.2-4.8
20238.91.37.52.18.44.05.3-1.7-4.7-2.511.55.3
20243.82.32.1-2.54.36.2-4.54.12.32.02.71.3
20251.4-4.3-6.11.49.15.73.60.45.04.5-1.10.2
20260.4-2.3-7.918.411.5-1.8-5.64.83.1-6.4
GenConfluence vs. SPY (percentage points)
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2019-2.5-3.3-0.5-1.16.3-4.3-0.85.3-4.1-1.8-1.7-1.5
20201.08.927.30.2-1.34.7-0.31.44.72.7-12.1-1.7
2021-2.8-2.2-2.30.13.83.3-2.31.80.9-0.52.3-0.9
20223.57.70.18.92.12.0-6.50.45.3-5.03.34.6
20231.4-2.75.3-0.24.8-0.6-0.32.91.50.2-7.3-2.9
2024-0.5-1.9-1.94.12.70.81.2-4.51.0-1.4-1.84.4
2025-0.1-0.36.010.0-5.71.3-0.61.62.63.11.12.7
2026-1.67.90.0-0.8-1.5-1.1-3.5-1.70.3-1.5
GenConfluence vs. QQQ (percentage points)
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2019-3.3-3.7-2.5-3.38.6-4.7-1.95.8-2.6-4.1-2.4-2.5
2020-1.86.922.7-1.8-4.01.0-1.5-2.45.43.4-11.7-3.8
2021-3.80.71.6-1.85.6-0.9-2.50.62.7-2.3-0.11.6
20228.48.4-1.013.44.22.0-9.31.66.3-1.35.16.6
2023-2.8-4.7-0.30.7-2.60.0-1.43.31.40.0-9.5-3.3
2024-1.0-1.1-0.54.20.8-1.05.3-4.60.3-1.9-0.61.1
20251.30.77.48.4-8.50.3-1.12.80.71.02.73.4
2026-1.39.40.4-6.7-6.7-1.02.1-2.8-3.23.8

All results on this page are from a backtest. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Interested in GenConfluence?

GenConfluence is priced at $50 per month. Sign up for a QuantVantage.ai account, or contact us with any questions.